On November 5th, the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35%. This marks the eighth consecutive meeting in which the RBA decided to maintain the cash rate, reflecting the central bank's ongoing concerns about the impacts of inflation across the broader economy. The RBA’s statement on their monetary policy decision was also released on November 5th. The RBA’s statement indicated that underlying inflation is still too high at 3.5 per cent, which was the RBA's forecast ahead of the decision. Findings from the statement include that aggregate demand remains above the economy’s supply capacity, as evidenced by the persistence of underlying inflation, surveys of business conditions, and ongoing strength in the labour market.
The RBA is concerned that inflation will stay above the target range longer than is sustainable, though data has confirmed that current growth in output is weak. Spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists has remained strong, driving aggregate consumer demand. However, this is set against declines in disposable incomes and restrictive financial conditions that continue to weigh on household consumption. These are among the factors that the RBA is analysing that directly interact with the real estate sector. These factors contributed to the RBA’s decision to hold off adjusting the current cash rate since its last determination in September 2024. The RBA has continued to commit to its 2 – 3 per cent target range for inflation and anticipates reaching its midpoint by 2026.
The RBA has indicated that the consumer price index is currently 2.8 per cent and that returning inflation to its target remains the RBA’s highest priority.
The next announcement on the cash rate is set for December 10th, 2024. The RBA’s website has more information.