Cash Rate Decision
Key Takeaways
Cash Rate Unchanged: The RBA has again held the cash rate at 3.60 per cent, as widely expected.
Inflation Pressures: While inflation has fallen substantially from its 2022 peaks, the RBA noted a recent pick-up in underlying inflation. Some of this increase may reflect temporary factors, but there are signs of an economy-wide inflationary rise.
Economic Activity & Housing: Private demand continues to strengthen, supported by both consumer spending and investment. Housing market activity (prices, construction costs) and credit availability have also risen, indicating that previous rate reductions are feeding through.
The RBA has maintained its cash rate at 3.60 per cent, in line with expectations. While inflation has eased substantially from its 2022 peaks, the RBA noted a recent pickup in underlying price pressures. Some of that increase may reflect temporary factors, but the data suggest a more broadly based inflation rise that may prove more persistent.
Economic activity in Australia appears to be strengthening: private demand is rising, driven by consumer and business spending alike. At the same time, credit conditions have loosened, and the housing market is showing signs of increased activity. These developments suggest that the effects of earlier interest-rate reductions are still feeding through the economy, supporting both consumption and investment.
On the labour front, the picture remains mixed but generally supportive. Employment growth has cooled, and unemployment has edged up slightly. Nevertheless, worker utilisation remains above long-run averages, and many businesses continue to report difficulty sourcing employees. Meanwhile, although wage growth has moderated from previous peaks, labour costs remain elevated. This could continue to feed into inflation.
What Impacted the RBA’s Decision
The RBA’s decision to hold rates steady reflects a balancing act between encouraging ongoing economic recovery and guarding against a resurgence of inflation. The recent pick-up in underlying inflation, beyond what would be expected from temporary distortions, raised concern that price pressures may re-emerge more broadly. At the same time, strengthening private demand, improving credit conditions, and housing activity suggest that the economy is already responding to past rate cuts. Labour market conditions, with still-tight capacity and elevated labour costs, further reinforce that inflation risks have not yet subsided. On the international side, while global growth remains uncertain and geopolitical risks persist, the global backdrop has not yet derailed trade or economic activity to the point that would warrant aggressive monetary easing.
Moving Forward
Looking ahead, the RBA emphasised that its approach remains data-dependent. With inflation showing signs of renewed strength and demand in both consumption and housing remaining elevated, the RBA is likely to remain cautious before considering any further loosening of policy. The full effects of earlier rate reductions have yet to play out. Still, the risk of inflation re-acceleration means economists will be carefully monitoring incoming data on prices, wages, labour market conditions, demand and global developments. The decision to hold rates was unanimous, underscoring a shared view among Board members that, for now, cautious policy gives the best balance between supporting growth and containing inflation.
The RBA’s next monetary policy decision is scheduled for the 3rd of February. The REIV will continue to monitor developments, as interest rate settings are a key factor influencing borrowing capacity, investment activity, and mortgage servicing in the Victorian real estate sector.