Cash Rate Decision
On December 10th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent. This marks the ninth consecutive meeting in which the RBA decided to maintain the cash rate. It reflects the central bank's ongoing concerns about the impacts of inflation across the broader economy. The RBA’s statement on their monetary policy decision was also released on December 10th. The RBA’s statement indicated that underlying inflation is still too high at 3.5 per cent, some way from the midpoint target of 2.5 per cent. Findings from the statement include that economic growth has slowed substantially, household consumption is subdued, particularly in discretionary spending, due to restrictive financial conditions, and the gap between demand and supply is closing, slowing inflationary pressures.
What Impacted the RBA’s Decision
The RBA noted inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022. It ascribes this to interest rates working to bring down aggregate demand and supply towards balance. Output growth has weakened, with data indicating that the Australian economy only grew by 0.8 per cent over the past year. This marked the slowest growth since the early 1990s. However, due to the tight labour market, with a 4.1 per cent unemployment rate in October and continuous employment growth, the impacts of inflation remain challenging to curb. The RBA has assessed that its monetary is restrictive and is working as anticipated. It is projected that income growth will align with household consumption, with a pick-up in consumption in October and November. However, there is concern that slower-than-expected household consumption may lead to overly subdued output growth and a sharp deterioration in the labour market. There are also ongoing issues with global financial conditions, including other central banks easing monetary policy in alignment with their inflation targets, though with acute levels of restrictiveness and alertness to any impact on labour markets and inflation. These are among the factors that the RBA is analysing that directly interact with the real estate sector. These factors contributed to the RBA’s decision to hold off adjusting the current cash rate since its last determination in November 2024.
Moving Forward
As the RBA’s determinations around the cash rate continue to affect many of the real estate sector's stakeholders, including their borrowing power and capacity to service mortgage repayments, the REIV will keep its membership informed on the RBA’s decisions. The RBA has indicated that the consumer price index remains at 2.8 per cent and that returning inflation to its target is the RBA’s highest priority. The RBA has committed to its 2 – 3 per cent target range for inflation and anticipates reaching the midpoint by 2026. The next announcement on the cash rate is set for February 18th, 2025. The RBA’s website has more information.